Olmert Closer to Deal with Syria, Israel Is Not

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By Peter Hirschberg

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has said he is "very interested" in peace with Syria. He has sent a message to Syrian President Bashar Assad expressing a willingness to give back the Golan Heights in exchange for a comprehensive peace treaty.

Assad has confirmed receiving that message. And the Syrian leader has said that most of the differences between the two countries have already been settled.

The way the two leaders have been talking in recent weeks, it sounds as if the only thing left to do is ink the deal. But a peace treaty between Israel and Syria is hardly around the corner.

Israeli lawmakers who oppose ceding the Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria during the 1967 Mideast war, were sufficiently impressed by the interaction between Jerusalem and Damascus to emerge from their somnambulant state induced by the week-long Passover holiday to flay the Prime Minister. They accused him of endangering the country's security by agreeing to relinquish the strategic range that overlooks northern Israel and enables Israel to survey much of Syria.

"Withdrawing from the Golan would result in Hezbollah terrorists entering the area and embittering the lives of the residents of northern Israel," said David Tal, a member of Olmert's own ruling Kadima party. Tal said he now planned to push forward legislation that would require a national referendum on any agreement with Syria.

Effie Eitam, a hardline parliamentarian who lives on the Golan Heights, said he was convinced the Israeli public "will not let him (Olmert) return it to Syria. Olmert is abandoning the security of Israel in an attempt to present voters with some kind of diplomatic achievement and for that, he is willing to concede our rights to security on the northern border, which we have enjoyed for more than 40 years."

But the speed at which these politicians retreated back into holiday mode seems to suggest that they are not overly concerned that the latest Olmert-Assad tango will result in a full-fledged peace treaty. The Syrians, who confirmed that Turkey was acting as a go-between with Israel, may be correct when they say that most of the differences have already been settled. But what remains to be negotiated is the issue that doomed the negotiations when the two sides last met in 2000 and which still remains unresolved.

Syria argues that a return to the 1967 border would leave it in control of the north-eastern shore of the Sea of Galilee, which is Israel's main water source. Israel has insisted in past negotiations that the border should be drawn a few hundred metres north of the shoreline, leaving it under Israeli sovereignty.

What's more, while Olmert has acceded to the Syrian pre-condition for talks -- an expressed readiness to withdraw from the Golan -- Assad has yet to respond to the Israeli leader's demand that he distance himself from Iran and cease his support for Hezbollah and Hamas. Some Israeli observers believe it is unlikely Assad will make such a commitment prior to negotiations, but could once an agreement is in sight.

Both sides also know that U.S. involvement will be essential if talks are to be re-launched. Syria is desperate to extract itself from President George W. Bush's "axis of evil", and Israel will demand a defence package from the U.S. as part of an agreement in which it cedes control of the Golan.

Such a package would have to include both security guarantees and defence systems that would help compensate for the loss of the strategic range. Mount Hermon, a peak on the Golan Heights, is known in Israel as "the eyes of the nation" because its altitude allows Israel to peer deep into Syria and hence acts as a strategic early-warning system.

But Bush has shown no sign of easing the pressure on Syria or any inclination to remove Assad from his "axis of evil". Hence the working assumption in Jerusalem -- and Damascus, it seems -- is that if negotiations do resume, it will not be until there is a new president sitting in the White House.

Olmert also knows that he currently lacks a parliamentary majority -- there is even opposition within his own party to ceding the Golan -- for a deal with Syria. Moreover, if he is hatching plans for a peace agreement with Assad, he will need to first prepare the Israeli public, which is deeply skeptical of the Syrian leader's true intentions. That will take time: a poll published recently in Yediot Ahronoth newspaper showed that only 32 percent of Israelis are ready to support a full withdrawal from the Golan Heights.

While the public may be unconvinced for now, there is no shortage of people in Israel's defence establishment who see the strategic value in an agreement with Damascus. Peace with Syria -- and the manner in which this would change U.S.-Syria relations -- they argue, would pry Damascus away from its alliance with Iran and end Assad's backing of both Hezbollah and Hamas.

For now, though, Olmert is probably looking at the Syrian track mainly through the political lens. The conventional wisdom in political circles is that elections, which are scheduled for late 2010, will most likely be held in a year's time.

With that in mind, Olmert will want to go into an election with a clear and compelling campaign. Significant progress on the Syrian track and the outlines of an agreement with the Palestinians, with whom he renewed talks last December, could provide him with just that.