Tuesday, June 24, 2008

The Coming Catastrophe?

Go to Original
By David DeBatto

The finishing touches on several contingency plans for attacking Iran

"Israel has said a strike on Iran will be "unavoidable" if the Islamic regime continues to press ahead with alleged plans for building an atom-bomb." (London Daily Telegraph, 6/11/2008)

"Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany joined President Bush on Wednesday in calling for further sanctions against Iran if it does not suspend its uranium enrichment program." Mr. Bush stressed again that "all options are on the table," which would include military force. (New York Times, 6/11/2008)

We are fast approaching the final six months of the Bush administration. The quagmire in Iraq is in its sixth painful year with no real end in sight and the forgotten war in Afghanistan is well into its seventh year. The "dead enders" and other armed factions are still alive and well in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan again controls most of that country. Gas prices have now reached an average of $4.00 a gallon nationally and several analysts predict the price will rise to $5.00-$6.00 dollars per gallon at the pump by Labor Day. This, despite assurances by some major supporters of the decision to invade Iraq that the Iraq war "will pay for itself" (Paul Wolfowitz) or that we will see "$20.00 per barrel" oil prices if we invade Iraq (Rupert Murdoch).

One thing the Pentagon routinely does (and does very well) is conduct war games. Top brass there are constantly developing strategies for conducting any number of theoretical missions based on real or perceived threats to our national security or vital interests. This was also done prior to the invasion of Iraq, but the Bush administration chose not to listen to the dire warnings about that mission given to him by Pentagon leaders, or for that matter, by his own senior intelligence officials. Nevertheless, war gaming is in full swing again right now with the bullseye just to the right of our current mess – Iran.

It’s no secret that the U.S. is currently putting the finishing touches on several contingency plans for attacking Iranian nuclear and military facilities. With our ground forces stretched to the breaking point in Iraq and Afghanistan, none of the most likely scenarios involve a ground invasion. Not that this administration wouldn’t prefer to march into the seat of Shiite Islam behind a solid, moving line of M1 Abrams tanks and proclaim the country for democracy. The fact is that even the President knows we can’t pull that off any more so he and the neo-cons will have to settle for Shock and Awe Lite.

If we invade Iran this year it will be done using hundreds of sorties by carrier based aircraft already stationed in the Persian Gulf and from land based aircraft located in Iraq and Qatar. They will strike the known nuclear facilities located in and around Tehran and the rest of the country as well as bases containing major units of the Iranian military, anti-aircraft installations and units of the Revolutionary Guard (a separate and potent Iranian para-military organization).

Will this military action stop Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons? Probably not. It will probably not even destroy all of their nuclear research facilities, the most sensitive of which are known to be underground, protected by tons of earth and reinforced concrete and steel designed to survive almost all attacks using conventional munitions. The Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard will most likely survive as well, although they will suffer significant casualties and major bases and command centers will undoubtedly be destroyed. However, since Iran has both a functioning Air Force, Navy (including submarines) and modern anti-aircraft capabilities, U.S. fighter-bombers will suffer casualties as well. This will not be a "Cake Walk" as with the U.S. led invasion of Iraq in 2003 when the Iraqi Army simply melted away and the Iraqi Air Force never even launched a single aircraft.

Not even close.

If the United States attacks Iran either this summer or this fall, the American people had better be prepared for a shock that may perhaps be even greater to the national psyche (and economy) than 9/11. First of all, there will be significant U.S. casualties in the initial invasion. American jets will be shot down and the American pilots who are not killed will be taken prisoner - including female pilots. Iranian Yakhonts 26, Sunburn 22 and Exocet missiles will seek out and strike U.S. naval battle groups bottled up in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf with very deadly results. American sailors will be killed and U.S. ships will be badly damaged and perhaps sunk. We may even witness the first attack on an American Aircraft carrier since World War II.

That’s just the opening act.

Israel (who had thus far stayed out of the fray by letting the U.S. military do the heavy lifting) is attacked by Hezbollah in a coordinated and large scale effort. Widespread and grisly casualties effectively paralyze the nation, a notion once thought impossible. Iran’s newest ally in the region, Syria, then unleashes a barrage of over 200 Scud B, C and D missiles at Israel, each armed with VX gas. Since all of Israel is within range of these Russian built weapons, Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and virtually all major civilian centers and several military bases are struck, often with a result of massive casualties.

The Israeli Air Force orders all three squadrons of their F-16I Sufa fighter/bombers into the air with orders to bomb Tehran and as many military and nuclear bases as they can before they are either shot down or run out of fuel. It is a one way trip for some of these pilots. Their ancient homeland lies in ruins. Many have family that is already dead or dying. They do not wait for permission from Washington, DC or U.S. regional military commanders. The Israeli aircraft are carrying the majority of their country’s nuclear arsenal under their wings.

Just after the first waves of U.S. bombers cross into Iranian airspace, the Iranian Navy, using shore based missiles and small, fast attack craft sinks several oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, sealing off the Persian Gulf and all its oil from the rest of the world. They then mine the area, making it difficult and even deadly for American minesweepers to clear the straits. Whatever is left of the Iranian Navy and Air Force harasses our Navy as it attempts minesweeping operations. More U.S casualties.

The day after the invasion Wall Street (and to a lesser extent, Tokyo, London and Frankfurt) acts as it always does in an international crisis – irrational speculative and spot buying reaches fever pitch and sends the cost of oil skyrocketing. In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iran, the price of oil goes to $200.00 - $300.00 dollars a barrel on the open market. If the war is not resolved in a few weeks, that price could rise even higher. This will send the price of gasoline at the pump in this country to $8.00-$10.00 per gallon immediately and subsequently to even higher unthinkable levels.

If that happens, this country shuts down. Most Americans are not be able to afford gas to go to work. Truckers pull their big rigs to the side of the road and simply walk away. Food, medicine and other critical products are not be brought to stores. Gas and electricity (what is left of the short supply) are too expensive for most people to afford. Children, the sick and elderly die from lack of air-conditioned homes and hospitals in the summer. Children, the sick and elderly die in the winter for lack of heat. There are food riots across the country. A barter system takes the place of currency and credit as the economy dissolves and banks close or limit withdrawals. Civil unrest builds.

The police are unable to contain the violence and are themselves victims of the same crisis as the rest of the population. Civilian rule dissolves and Martial Law is declared under provisions approved under the Patriot Act. Regular U.S. Army and Marine troops patrol the streets. The federal government apparatus is moved to an unknown but secure location. The United States descends into chaos and becomes a third world country. Its time as the lone superpower is over.

It doesn’t get any worse than this.

Then the first Israeli bomber drops its nuclear payload on Tehran.

Billion-Dollar Babies

Go to Original
By Nick Turse

Five Stealth Pentagon Contractors Reaping Billions of Tax Dollars

The top Pentagon contractors, like death and taxes, almost never change. In 2002, the massive arms dealers Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman ranked one, two, and three among Department of Defense contractors, taking in $17 billion, $16.6 billion, and $8.7 billion. Lockheed, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman did it again in 2003 ($21.9, $17.3, and $11.1 billion); 2004 ($20.7, $17.1, and $11.9 billion); 2005 ($19.4, $18.3, and $13.5 billion); 2006 ($26.6, $20.3, and $16.6 billion); and, not surprisingly, 2007 as well ($27.8, $22.5, and $14.6 billion). Other regulars receiving mega-tax-funded payouts in a similarly clockwork-like manner include defense giants General Dynamics, Raytheon, the British weapons maker BAE Systems, and former Halliburton subsidiary KBR, as well as BP, Shell, and other power players from the military-petroleum complex.

With the basic Pentagon budget now clocking in at roughly $541 billion per year -- before "supplemental" war funding for Iraq, Afghanistan, and the President’s Global War on Terror, as well as national security spending by other agencies, are factored in -- even Lockheed’s hefty $28 billion take is a small percentage of the massive total. Obviously, significant sums of money are headed to other companies. However, most of them, including some of the largest, are all but unknown even to Pentagon-watchers and antiwar critics with a good grasp of the military industrial complex.

Last year, in a piece headlined "Washington’s $8 Billion Shadow," Vanity Fair published an exposé of one of the better known large stealth contractors, SAIC (Science Applications International Corporation). SAIC, however, is just one of tens of thousands of Pentagon contractors. Many of these firms receive only tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars from the Pentagon every year. Some take home millions, tens of millions, or even hundreds of millions of dollars.

Then there’s a select group that are masters of the universe in the ever-expanding military-coroporate complex, regularly scoring more than a billion tax dollars a year from the Department of Defense. Unlike Lockheed, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman, however, most of these billion-dollar babies manage to fly beneath the radar of media (not to mention public) attention. If appearing at all, they generally do so innocuously in the business pages of newspapers. When it comes to their support for the Pentagon’s wars and occupations in Afghanistan and Iraq, they are, in media terms, missing in action.

So, who are some of these mystery defense contractors you’ve probably never heard of? Here are snapshot portraits, culled largely from their own corporate documents, of five of the Pentagon’s secret billion-dollar babies:

1. MacAndrews & Forbes Holdings Inc.

Total DoD dollars in 2007: $3,360,739,032

This is billionaire investor Ronald Perelman’s massive holding company. It has "interests in a diversified portfolio of public and private companies" that includes the cosmetics maker Revlon and Panavision (the folks who make the cameras that bring you TV shows like 24 and CSI). MacAndrews & Forbes might, at first blush, seem an unlikely defense contractor, but one of those privately owned companies it holds is AM General -- the folks who make the military Humvee. Today, says the company, nearly 200,000 Humvees have been "built and delivered to the U.S. Armed Forces and more than 50 friendly overseas nations." Humvees, however, are only part of the story.

AM General has also assisted Carnegie Mellon University researchers in developing robots for the Pentagon blue-skies outfit, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency’s "Grand Challenge," an autonomous robot-vehicle competition. Last year, AM General and General Dynamics Land Systems, a subsidiary of mega-weapons maker General Dynamics, formed a joint venture "to compete for the U.S. Army and Marine Corps Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) program." AM General has even gone to war -- dispatching its "field service representatives" and "maintenance technical representatives" to Iraq where they were embedded with U.S. troops.

As such, it’s hardly surprising that, earlier this year, the company received one of the Defense Logistics Agency’s Outstanding Readiness Support Awards. Nor should anyone be surprised to discover that a top MacAndrews & Forbes corporate honcho, Executive Vice Chairman and Chief Administrative Officer Barry F. Schwartz, contributed a total of at least $10,000 to Straight Talk America, the political action committee of presidential candidate John McCain, who famously said it would be "fine" with him if U.S. troops occupied Iraq for "maybe a hundred years" (if not "a thousand" or "a million").

Perhaps hedging their bets just a bit, MacAndrews & Forbes is diversifying into an emerging complex-within-the-Complex: homeland security. Recently, AM General sold the Department of Homeland Security’s Border Patrol "more than 100 HUMMER K-series trucks for use in border security operations."

2. DRS Technologies, Inc.

Total DoD dollars in 2007: $1,791,321,140

Incorporated during the Vietnam War, DRS Technologies has long been "a leading supplier of integrated products, services and support to military forces, intelligence agencies and prime contractors worldwide"; that is, they have been in the business of fielding products that enhance some of the DoD’s deadliest weaponry, including "DDG-51 Aegis destroyers, M1A2 Abrams Main Battle Tanks, M2A3 Bradley Fighting Vehicles, OH-58D Kiowa Warrior helicopters, AH-64 Apache helicopters, F/A-18E/F Super Hornet and F-16 Fighting Falcon jet fighters, F-15 Eagle tactical fighters… [and] Ohio, Los Angeles and Virginia class submarines." They even have "contracts that support future military platforms, such as the DDG-1000 destroyer, CVN-78 next-generation aircraft carrier, Littoral Combat Ship and Future Combat System."

In addition to 2007’s haul of Pentagon dollars, DRS Technologies has continued to clean up in 2008 for a range of projects, including: a $16.2 million Army contract for refrigeration units; $51 million in new orders from the Army for thermal weapon sights (part of a five-year, $2.3-billion deal inked in 2007); a $10.1 million contract to build more than 140 M989A1 Heavy Expanded Mobility Ammunition Trailers (to transport "numerous and extremely heavy Multiple Launch Rocket System pods, palletized or non-palletized conventional ammunition and fuel bladders"); and a $23 million deal "to provide engineering support, field service support and general depot repairs for the Mast Mounted Sights (MMS) on OH-58 Kiowa Warrior attack helicopters," among many other contracts.

Fitch Ratings, an international credit rating agency, recently made a smart, if perhaps understated, point -- one that actually fits all of these billion-dollar babies. DRS, it wrote, "has benefited from the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan…"

3. Harris Corporation

Total DoD dollars in 2007: $1,501,163,834

Harris is "an international communications and information technology company serving government, defense and commercial markets in more than 150 countries." It has an annual revenue of more than $4 billion and an impressive roster of former military personnel and other military-corporate complex insiders on its payroll. Not only does Harris assist and do business with a number of the Pentagon’s largest contractors (like Lockheed Martin and BAE Systems), it is also an active participant in occupations abroad. On its website, the company boasts that "Harris technology has been used for a variety of commercial and defense applications, including the War in Iraq where the [Harris software] system provided detailed, 3-D representations of Baghdad and other key Iraqi cities."

Last year, Harris signed multiple deals with the military, including contracts to create a high-speed digital data link that transmits tactical video, radar, acoustic, and other sensor data from Navy MH-60R helicopters to their host ships. It also supplies the Navy with advanced computers that provide the "highly sophisticated moving maps and critical mission information via cockpit displays" used by flight crews.

In the first six months of this year, Harris has continued its hard work for the Complex. In January, the company was "selected by the U.S. Air Force for the Network and Space Operations and Maintenance (NSOM) program" for "a base contract and six options that bring the potential overall value to $410 million over six-and-a-half-years" to provide "operations and maintenance support to the 50th Space Wing’s Air Force Satellite Control Network at locations around the world."

In May, the company was "awarded a three-year, $20 million contract by [top 10 Pentagon contractor] L3 Communications to provide products and services for a next-generation Tactical Video Capture System (TVCS)" -- a system that integrates real time video streams to enhance tactical training exercises -- "that will support training at various U.S. Marine Corps locations across the U.S. and abroad." That same month, Harris was also "awarded a potential five-year, $85 million Indefinite Delivery/Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract from the U.S. Navy for multiband satellite communications terminals that will provide advanced communications for aircraft carriers and other large deck ships."

In addition, Harris is now hard at work in the Homeland. Not only did the company pick up more than $3 million from the Department of Homeland Security last year, but national security expert Tim Shorrock, in a 2007 CorpWatch article, "Domestic Spying, Inc.," specifically noted that Harris and fellow intelligence industry contractors "stand to profit from th[e] unprecedented expansion of America’s domestic intelligence system."

4. Navistar Defense

Total DoD dollars in 2007: $1,166,805,361

Still listed in Pentagon documents under its old name, International Military and Government, LLC, Navistar is the military subsidiary of Navistar International Corporation -- "a holding company whose individual units provide integrated and best-in-class transportation solutions." While the company has served the U.S. military since World War I, it’s known, if at all, by the public for making some of the Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles designed to thwart Iraqi roadside bombs. As of April 2008, the U.S. military had "ordered 5,214 total production MaxxPro MRAP vehicles" from Navistar and, that same month, the company was awarded "a contract valued at more than $261 million… for engineering upgrades to the armor used on International MaxxPro MRAP vehicles."

But Navistar makes more than MRAPs. Just last month, the company signed a "multi-year contract valued at nearly $1.3 billion" with the U.S. Army "to provide Medium Tactical Vehicles and spare parts to the Afghanistan National Police, Afghan National Army, and the Iraqi Ministry of Defense." This followed a 2005 multi-year Army contract, worth $430 million, "for more than 2,900 vehicles and spare parts."

Quite obviously, the company is significantly, profitably, and proudly involved in the occupations of Iraq and Afghanistan. As Tom Feifar, the Global Defense and Export general manager for Navistar Parts, put it late last year, "It’s an honor to be a part of the effort to support our troops."

5. Evergreen International Airlines

Total DoD dollars in 2007: $1,105,610,723

A privately held global aviation services company, it has subsidiaries in related industries such as helicopter aviation (Evergreen Helicopters, Inc.), as well as a few unrelated efforts like producing "agricultural, nursery and wine products" (Evergreen Agricultural Enterprises, Inc.). Evergreen has been on the Pentagon’s payroll for a long time. Back in 2004, Ed Connolly, the executive vice president of Evergreen International Airlines, stated, "Evergreen has flown continuously for the [U.S. Air Force] Air Mobility Command since 1975 and is proud to continue its long standing history of supporting the U.S. Armed Forces global missions with quality and reliable services."

Not surprisingly, Evergreen has been intimately involved in the occupation of Iraq. In fact, in 2004, the company received "approximately 200 awards for its support of international airlift services during the Iraq war" from the Air Force’s Air Mobility Command. An Air Force general even handed out these medals and certificates of achievement to Evergreen’s employees.

In Amnesty International’s 2006 report, "Below the Radar: Secret Flights to Torture and ‘Disappearance,’" the human rights organization noted that Evergreen was one of only a handful of private companies with current permits to land at U.S. military bases worldwide. That same year, the company even airlifted FOX News personality Bill O’Reilly and his TV show crew to Kuwait and Iraq to meet and greet troops, sign books and pictures, and hand out trinkets. And just last year the company was part of a consortium, including such high profile commercial carriers as American, Delta, and United Airlines that the Pentagon awarded a "$1,031,154,403 firm fixed-price contract for international airlift services… [that] is expected to be completed September 2008."

Under the Radar

All told, these five stealth corporations from the military-corporate complex received more than $8.9 billion in taxpayer dollars in 2007. To put this into perspective, that sum is almost $2 billion more than the Bush administration’s proposed 2009 budget for the Environmental Protection Agency. Put another way, it’s about nine times what one-sixth of the world’s population spent on food last year.

Tens of thousands of defense contractors -- from well-known "civilian" corporations (like Coca-Cola, Kraft, and Dell) to tiny companies -- have fattened up on the Pentagon and its wars. Most of the time, large or small, they fly under the radar and are seldom identified as defense contractors at all. So it’s hardly surprising that firms like Harris and Evergreen, without name recognition outside their own worlds, can take in billions in taxpayer dollars without notice or comment in our increasingly militarized civilian economy.

When the history of the Iraq War is finally written, chances are that these five billion-dollar babies, and most of the other defense contractors involved in making the U.S. occupation possible, will be left out. Until we begin coming to grips with the role of such corporations in creating the material basis for an imperial foreign policy, we’ll never be able to grasp fully how the Pentagon works and why we so regularly make war in, and carry out occupations of, distant lands.

Feingold: ‘Farce’ wiretap deal could be hiding ‘impeachable offense’

Go to Original
By Nick Juliano

The battle to protect Americans from warrantless wiretaps and hold telecommunications companies accountable is all but lost, Sen. Russ Feingold, a leading critic of President Bush’s likely illegal surveillance programs, said Monday.

The “farce” of a surveillance law deal heralded by House Democratic leaders last week could permanently hide evidence of an “impeachable offense” on the part of President Bush, the Wisconsin Democrat said.

Feingold spoke at the New America Foundation in Washington about the nation’s intelligence needs. He panned an update to the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act that quickly passed in the House last week. The Senate is expected to follow suit this year, officially putting the Democratic-controlled Congress’s seal of approval on an administration backed gambit to essentially legalize Bush’s warrantless surveillance program while at the same time letting off the hook phone companies that critics say facilitated the contravention of current law.

“I do think this is a total farce with regard to the immunity [for telecommunications companies]. It basically guarantees the immunity,” Feingold said. “It doesn’t simply have the impact of potentially allowing telephone companies to break the law. It may prevent us from ever getting to the core issue … which is the president ran an illegal program that could’ve been an impeachable offense.”

House Democratic leaders heralded the bill as a “bipartisan compromise” because instead of giving blanket retroactive immunity to telecommunications companies that facilitated the president’s warrantless wiretapping program, it would route the grants of immunity through a district court. As long as the companies could demonstrate to a judge that they were instructed to spy on Americans by the Bush administration they would be spared the trouble of litigating more than 40 pending lawsuits , even though they initiated the surveillance without legally required warrants.

“This is an astonishing giveaway,” Feingold said.

The FISA update passed the House Friday, less than 24 hours after it was released. The bill was crafted after negotiations among moderate Democrats, Republicans, the White House and telecommunications lobbyists. The Senate is expected to pass the bill this week, and Feingold sounded pessimistic about the chances to improve it, although he said he would work with other skeptical senators to try.

Feingold and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) met with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on Friday to urge him not to simply rush the new surveillance bill through the Senate. Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, also has been critical of the proposed FISA update.

“I’m very worried we’re not going to be able to prevail,” Feingold said in response to a question from RAW STORY. “Sen Dodd and I and Sen. Leahy are going to do everything that we can to stop this mistake, but I’m very concerned … that far too many Democrats will vote the wrong way.”

One of those Democrats could be Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL), the party’s presidential candidate. In a statement released Friday, Obama indicated support for the FISA deal, although he said he would work to remove the immunity provision.

“I don’t know what Sen. Obama’s going to do,” Feingold said. “But Democrats should be voting against this.”

Later during a question and answer section, Feingold was asked specifically whether he or Dodd would filibuster the FISA update this week. He said the two met with Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid on Friday to request that the bill not just be “rammed through” the Senate.

“We’ll be requiring key procedural votes, and also taking some time on the floor this week, to indicate the problems of this legislation,” he said. “We’re not just going to let it quickly pass.”

This video is from UStream TV, broadcast June 23, 2008.

Download video

Feingold’s prepared speech focused on confronting foreign intelligence and information gaps. His remarks are reprinted below:

Remarks of U.S. Senator Russ Feingold
Confronting Foreign Intelligence and Information Gaps
The New America Foundation
June 23, 2008
As Prepared for Delivery

Thank you, Steve Clemons, and thanks to all of you here at the New America Foundation for the opportunity to speak at an organization that has a reputation for innovative thinking, and for challenging the status quo when it comes to public policy. The New America Foundation reminds me a little of my home state of Wisconsin - a purple state that, like NAF, transcends the conventional political spectrum.

As some of you may know, I hold open meetings with my constituents every year in every one of Wisconsin’s 72 counties, and I have been doing this since I arrived in the U.S. Senate in 1993. From these meetings – now over 1,100 of them – I have gained a pretty good sense of the interests and concerns of the very diverse group of Americans that I represent.

In the last six years of these listening sessions, foreign affairs generally, and the war in Iraq specifically, have been the number one issue raised. Like so many Americans, the anger and resolve Wisconsinites felt after 9-11 have given way to confusion and frustration at this administration’s disastrous mistake in Iraq.

I hear in my listening sessions how this administration’s focus on Iraq has drained our country’s energy and financial resources, undermined our military readiness, and stymied action on our country’s security and domestic needs. And yet I also sense people’s readiness – their impatience, even — to take on the challenges of our post-9/11 world.

The American people are ready to face these new challenges, but the federal government is not. Nearly seven years after 9/11 we still have not translated the significance of that horrific event – and the responsibility and opportunity it thrust upon us – into a coherent plan of action. Instead, we remain mired in and distracted, politically and financially, by Iraq. As a consequence, many of the same serious problems that made us vulnerable to al Qaeda’s attack — in strategic planning, institutional readiness and allocation of resources — still remain.

My comments today are directed at two fundamental and continuing post 9-11 gaps: a gap in our strategic thinking and a major deficit in our foreign information and intelligence efforts. Until we address these gaps, our country will remain vulnerable here at home.

A Mistaken and Myopic Focus on Iraq

Clearly, the biggest strategic mistake after 9-11 has been the failure to address the threat of al Qaeda head on. Instead, we have conflated al Qaeda with Iraq, and launched a war in Iraq that perpetuates our military, intelligence, diplomatic and fiscal deficits and leaves us exposed - in fact increases our exposure – to very real threats to our domestic safety.

Most Americans now agree that the decision to go to war in Iraq was the wrong response to the attacks of 9-11. Unfortunately, even some political leaders who acknowledge this profound mistake seem to think we have no alternative but to perpetuate it by maintaining a massive open-ended presence in Iraq. I totally reject this position. We cannot construct an effective national security strategy that leaves tens of thousands of U.S. troops in Iraq indefinitely.

The greatest threat to our national security remains al Qaeda, a stateless network of terrorists, whose leaders have found safe haven in Pakistan along the Afghanistan border, and which has a growing number of increasingly dangerous global affiliates.

If there is a geographic base to al Qaeda, it is not in Iraq. As Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, testified before Congress earlier this year “the most likely near term attack on the United States will come from al Qaeda via [its] safe havens in the under-governed regions of Pakistan.” Likewise, the Director of National Intelligence stated in a 2008 intelligence assessment that al Qaeda is now using the Pakistan safe haven to put into place the last elements necessary to launch another attack against the U.S.

The Atlantic Council, chaired by General James Jones, recently concluded:

Afghanistan remains a dangerously neglected conflict. . . . Yet, what is happening in Afghanistan and beyond its borders can have even greater strategic long-term consequences than the struggle in Iraq. Failure would be disastrous for Europe, North America, and the region. Afghanistan and neighboring Pakistan are already breeding grounds for insurgency and terrorism, potentially worse than before September 11th. . . . And what happens in Iraq, Iran and Pakistan will most likely be influenced by conditions in Afghanistan.

The war in Iraq not only diverts the vast bulk of our military resources from the more immediate threats to our safety in places like Afghanistan, it also saps our nation’s financial strength and our ability to invest in our security. Osama bin Laden gave a speech in 2004 in which he stated that his goal was to bankrupt America. That’s al Qaeda’s strategic goal – to bankrupt America — and they have been successful beyond their dreams as we spend ourselves – our money, our people and our global goodwill — into bankruptcy with our misguided focus on Iraq.

If we are to win our struggle against those who seek to do us harm, we must regain global and strategic perspective; reverse this misdirected deployment of our military resources in Iraq; and realign our military, intelligence, diplomatic and other resources to address the threats to our nation’s safety and security that are posed by al Qaeda and its affiliates and sympathizers.

Deficit in Strategic Non-Military Resources

We also need to acknowledge that military resources alone aren’t enough to win this fight. The 2006 Annual Report of the U.S. Intelligence Community states that the predominant, immediate threats to our physical safety are terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. These are asymmetrical threats. Terrorism, and to an important degree proliferation, arise from stateless groups that are not deterred by massive weaponry or large standing armies. So, to effectively confront these threats, we have to move beyond a Cold War security strategy that emphasizes traditional military force.

This is not a partisan issue. What I say here today echoes what’s been said by leaders in this and prior administrations and members of both parties. The 9-11 Commission called for an increase in diplomatic, development and humanitarian tools. My Nebraska colleague, Senator Chuck Hagel, who serves with me on both the Senate Foreign Relations and Intelligence Committees, recently said “You will never win anything in the long run with just military power. When you’re dealing with terrorism, extremism, poverty, despair, those are problems far bigger than the military.” Senators Biden and Lugar, the Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, have both emphasized the need for more effective civilian-led foreign policy efforts, as have Defense Secretary Gates, Former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage and former deputy Secretary of Defense Joseph Nye.

The major strategic gap in our 21st century preparedness, then, is not a missile gap or a gap in military personnel and hardware measured against the armies and arsenals of another state. The major strategic gap is a deficit in the strength and variety of resources we must bring to bear on the asymmetric threats of today. An effective 21st century national security strategy must include improved resources to collect covert and public information, enhance multilateral diplomacy and prevent proliferation of nuclear weapons. Our strategy must also encourage participatory, transparent and fair government around the world, and promote accountability and the rule of law. That’s because these are key American principles, and because ineffective, repressive, corrupt and unresponsive governments can provide breeding grounds for extremism.

Our military increasingly has taken on the roles of our civilian-led institutions because we have massive deficits in those civilian agencies — in financial and human resources; in cultural and language capabilities; and in coherent, interagency strategies to anticipate and respond to threats to our national security.

We have to change our budgetary priorities to address these deficits. Even the greatest military arsenal in the world can’t ensure the safety of populations or resolve conflicts around the globe. And yet we continue to spend hundreds of billions of dollars – borrowed from China, Japan and oil-exporting countries — on weapons systems designed for Cold War conflicts between states with comparable weapon systems.

It is well past time to shift our strategic thinking – and our corresponding expenditures and actions – beyond outdated military tools and solutions. Let me quote Secretary Gates’ budgetary views from his Kansas State University speech: “We need,” he said, “a dramatic increase in spending on the civilian instruments of national security – diplomacy, strategic communications, foreign assistance, civic action and economic reconstruction and development.” One way to increase this much-needed investment in the civilian instruments of national security is to cut wasteful spending on weapons programs that will not help us address our most pressing national security concerns. These include, for example, the F-22 Raptor, which Secretary Gates has specifically identified as a weapons system with limited relevance in counterterrorism operations. It has never flown in Iraq or Afghanistan yet the Air Force continues to ask for more.

I am pleased that the President’s fiscal year 2009 budget attempts to increase the number of Foreign Service officers. As Secretaries Gates and Rice have said, there are more personnel on a single aircraft carrier task force, and more lawyers doing work for the Pentagon, than there are Foreign Service Officers. But, assuming the President’s proposal goes forward, the net gains are unclear, after accounting for the increased demands of Iraq and Afghanistan. The Government Accountability Office reported at the end of last year that, though the Department of State hired over 1,000 Foreign Service officers above attrition levels between 2002 and 2004, that increase was essentially consumed by the staffing demands of Iraq and Afghanistan programs. Even our modest efforts to enhance our civilian capacity, then, are being undermined by Iraq. This is also true with respect to our foreign information and intelligence capacity, to which I will now turn.

Intelligence Gaps

9/11 exposed major gaps in how intelligence critical to our national security was gathered, analyzed and used. The 9/11 Commission reviewed those gaps and began a process of intelligence reform that prompted the creation of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. The work is far from complete, but at least a framework for change has been put in place.

Another great challenge remains, however — one that is just as critical to fighting al Qaeda, as well as other threats to our national security. And, unlike the reform efforts pursued thus far, it is broader than just the Intelligence Community. The problem is our deficits in information collection, as well as reporting and analysis. By “information,” I mean not just intelligence gathered clandestinely, but also information obtained through diplomatic reporting and all the overt channels through which our government learns about the world. Inside and outside the Intelligence Community, our government has failed to coordinate information collection across different departments and agencies.

Our foreign information and intelligence will only be as good as the people we employ to gather it – and their ability to operate in the places to which we send them. Yet our intelligence deficit in human resources and collectors abroad is huge. The Office of the DNI estimates that between 1989 and 2001 – during the administrations of both political parties — there was a 40% loss in intelligence human resources. Making up for that loss will take time – after all, it takes five to seven years to develop an experienced employee. And we are short of experienced employees. Just consider what the DNI has acknowledged, that two-thirds of our intelligence-related human resources with responsibilities for sub-Saharan Africa – an area with ongoing al Qaeda activities — have less than five years of knowledge and experience.

The answer to these deficits in numbers and experience cannot be what the DNI has called its authority to “lift and shift” people to address the latest crisis. We need to develop the expertise that only years of study and experience can produce, and we need to pre-position expert collectors around the world – before crises arise.

The 2006 Intelligence Community Annual Report said that the intelligence agencies are “losing the ‘war for talent,’ finding it difficult to recruit, motivate, and retain the best candidates for its positions.” More specifically, the report noted: “[r]ecruiting and retaining high-level skills in critical languages and scientific and technical fields remains difficult.” Simply put, our national security depends on overcoming this particular challenge.

Human resources is part of a larger set of problems in how we collect and analyze information. As I will explain, these problems are entrenched and defy the ability of current institutions to correct them. For that reason, I recently introduced legislation with Senator Chuck Hagel to establish a Foreign Intelligence and Information Commission. Our bill will establish an independent commission to address long-standing, systematic problems in the collection, reporting, and analysis of foreign intelligence as well as diplomatic reporting and open source information.

First, as the Director of National Intelligence has testified, we continue to direct “disproportionate” resources toward current crises, rather than toward long-term strategic issues and emerging threats. Second, we don’t have the geographic distribution of resources we need to anticipate threats around the world. The lack of “global reach” has also been acknowledged by the Intelligence Community leadership. And third, we lack a comprehensive approach to information collection conducted by the U.S. government as a whole, including not only the Intelligence Community, but also State Department and other government officers who are based in our embassies.

This final point – that the problem, and the solution, are broader than the Intelligence Community — has also been acknowledged. Appearing before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, Michael Leiter, Director of the United States National Counterterrorism Center, specifically noted that “much of the information about the instability that can lead to safe havens or ideological radicalization comes not from covert collection but from open collection, best done by Foreign Service officers.” The problem is that it is not in the power of Mr. Leiter, or anyone in the Intelligence Community, to make sure that there are enough Foreign Service officers, in the right places, with the right resources.

To put it simply – the government does not have a process for asking the following questions: What do we need to know, not only today but in the future? Who is best suited to get that information and where do they need to be? Is our analysis up to the task? And how do we allocate resources, across agencies, so that these requirements are met with adequate funding and are focused on prevention, not just reaction? These big strategic questions are critical to our national security, yet they don’t get asked, much less answered. These issues extend well beyond the authorities of the DNI and the jurisdiction of any one congressional committee. That is why we need an independent commission to finally address them comprehensively and to make recommendations for the executive branch and for Congress. I am pleased that the Senate Intelligence Committee has endorsed this approach by including the Feingold-Hagel bill in legislation the Committee approved authorizing intelligence activities for the upcoming fiscal year.

Talking about “information collection” can sound a little abstract, but the implications are very real. Take, for example, our ability to address terrorist safe havens. As recently as the end of January, the State Department’s counterterrorism chief, Lt. Gen. Dell L. Dailey, publicly expressed concerns about what our intelligence services know – and don’t know — about the threat in the Afghan-Pakistani tribal areas. He said: “We don’t have enough information about what’s going on there. Not on al Qaeda. Not on foreign fighters. Not on the Taliban.” The same could be said about other safe havens identified by the State Department, including Somalia, the Sahel, and areas of Southeast Asia.

Around the world, potential instability looms, and political, economic and social conditions that can contribute to terrorist safe havens persist. The question for our government is how do we address these challenges, before the crises arise? Do we need more clandestine collectors in these parts of the world? Or do we need more political officers in far-flung places so we can do more robust diplomatic reporting? What does a U.S. embassy in one of these countries look like, from an interagency collection and reporting perspective? Are more consulates and out-of-embassy posts part of the solution? And how do we connect the requirements of our embassies overseas to Washington, where budget requests and spending allocations should reflect a broad strategy for collecting information across different agencies?

An independent commission will be able to ask, and help to answer, these questions. It will be able to look at the Intelligence Community, the State Department, and other departments and agencies to ensure that strategic and budgetary planning is part of a larger, interagency process. The commission will consider the role of the National Security Council and the OMB in this process. And it will look at the problem from top to bottom, interviewing NSC officials in Washington and visiting country missions overseas. This would not be a confrontational or accusatory investigation. It’s an inquiry intended to produce concrete recommendations to fix long-standing problems. Those recommendations will be of enormous benefit to whoever the next president is. And it will help Congress as it conducts oversight and considers the role of the Intelligence Community, the DNI, the State Department, and other agencies in the context of a broader strategy.

Other Gaps

There are other significant gaps in our security post-9/11, from this administration’s inconsistent “freedom agenda,” to our convoluted foreign assistance strategies, to our domestic infrastructure needs, but I think I may need a separate invitation for another day to speak about these.

Ultimately, the gaps that left us exposed here at home to the catastrophic attack we experienced on 9-11 remain with us. They present us with very real risks that are being left unaddressed, in part, because of our military presence in Iraq. The longer we remain in Iraq, the longer we will be unable to devote the human and financial resources these challenges urgently need.

I appreciate the roles that this institution and this audience play in helping to bring these issues into focus. I am hopeful that our voices, in all their diversity, will help inform decisions in a new administration that are in our best and collective interests. Nothing less than America’s security and future is at stake.

Thank you.